We’re just past the one-fourth mark of the NBA season, and some Detroit Pistons fans have already begun to look toward the future.
It makes sense. The Pistons own the NBA’s worst record at 4-18. Some expected them to make a leap after going 20-52 last season and adding Cade Cunningham. Rebuilds are rarely that straightforward.
In this week’s mailbag, I looked at the 2022 draft class, Saddiq Bey’s shooting woes, what Killian Hayes could look like in his prime and Jerami Grant’s future. Big thanks to everyone who sent a question.
For those who don’t follow college hoops, this question is about four of the top prospects in the 2022 draft — Gonzaga big man Chet Holmgren, Duke forward Paolo Banchero, Auburn forward Jabari Smith Jr. and Purdue guard Jaden Ivey. The first three are all in the mix to go No. 1, while Ivey is probably a lock to go in the top half of the lottery.
The Pistons should not be drafting for fit. Each of these four players would raise their talent floor and give them a potential young star to pair next to Cade Cunningham. That’s what matters most for their rebuild. Here’s my ranking: Smith, Holmgren, Banchero, Ivey.
Entering this season, many expected a two-man race between Holmgren and Banchero to become next year’s top pick. Smith has forced himself into the conversation, and might be the best long term prospect. He’s a lanky, athletic and sweet-shooting 6-foot-10 forward averaging 16.9 points (on 46.9% overall shooting and 44.4% shooting from 3), 7.1 rebounds, 2.4 assists, 1.7 steals and nearly a block through Auburn’s first seven games.
There’s a LOT to like about Smith. He’s one of the best shooters in the lottery, capable of knocking down 3’s both off-the-catch and off-the-dribble. There won’t be many defenders who’ll bother his shot. He takes and makes 3-pointers at a high volume, has a great handle for his size, particularly in the open floor, and can maneuver through tight spaces to finish. Defensively, he’s very mobile and can stay in front of smaller players. He probably lacks the strength to be a reliable rim-protector, but he projects very well as a perimeter defender.
All four players will be great options for the Pistons, if they’re in position to pick one next summer. Holmgren, a lanky 7-footer who has a chance to be a tremendous NBA defender, is second in my ranking. He’s averaging 3.5 blocks per game, and has the length and mobility to considerably raise the defensive floor of whatever team he lands with from Day 1. He’s a capable shooter and efficient scorer inside the arc. Holmgren doesn’t take a lot of shots, but he makes the shots he takes.
Banchero is a playmaking forward in the mold of New York Knicks star Julius Randle, or the post-injury, finesse version of Blake Griffin. What he lacks in pure athleticism, he makes up for with strength and skill. He’ll be a difference-maker on offense, but I don’t think he’ll be an impact defender.
Ivey is a do-it-all combo guard powering a very good Purdue team. He’s 6-4 with a 6-10 wingspan and strong athlete who likes to get to the bucket. Ivey is also knocking down 40% of his 4.4 3-point attempts per game — a major improvement over the 25.8% clip he registered as a freshman.
It’s a talented group, but Smith’s size, shotmaking, athleticism and defensive versatility bumps him to the top.
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I think we can chalk it up to a sophomore slump for now. If he’s still shooting the ball this bad a month from now, it might be fair to have deeper concerns about his offensive role.
Through 22 games, Bey is shooting 35.1% overall and 28.7% from 3 — substantial decreases from the 40.4% and 38% he shot last season, respectively. His catch-and-shoot percentages from outside are also down. There isn’t an easy explanation for why. Bey has always been a good shooter. He doesn’t appear to be suffering from an injury. Good shooters typically don’t forget how to shoot.
One explanation could be he’s adapting to a slightly different, slightly larger offensive role. Per Cleaning the Glass, 77% of his shots were assisted last season. That’s down to 56% this year. Per NBA Stats, 68.5% of his shots were taken with the ball in his hands fewer than two seconds last year. That’s down to 56.8% this year. 35.1% of his shots this year have been taken after he has had the ball between two and six seconds. Last year, it was 27.8%.
Bey, 22, is dribbling more, holding onto the ball longer and working harder for his shots this year, and it’s negatively impacting his efficiency. It doesn’t explain why the open catch-and-shoot attempts he was highly effective at as a rookie haven’t been falling, but the numbers suggest he’s currently playing a role he isn’t yet comfortable in. As his comfort level increases, his shooting splits should improve.
I could see a peak Hayes averaging somewhere in the neighborhood of 14 points, six assists, five rebounds and two steals. He has been Detroit’s best perimeter defender and arguably best passer this season. He still has strides to make on offense, though he has better from 3 compared to his rookie season. While Hayes may not ever be a top-three scorer on a good team (barring any significant changes to the way he approaches the game), he appears to be settling in as an all-around combo guard.
A blueprint for Hayes’ trajectory could be Lonzo Ball, who’s having the best season of his career with the Chicago Bulls after signing a four-year, $85 million contract this offseason. Ball is averaging 12.3 points, 5.2 rebounds, 4.9 assists and 1.7 steals while shooting a career-best 42.9% from 3. As a rookie, he knocked down just 30.5% of his shots from outside. Like the 20-year-old Hayes, he doesn’t get to the line much. Ball has taken eight free throws through 23 games this season.
But Ball’s ability to shoot, push the ball in transition and be a disruptive defender has made him a starter and core piece for a 15-8 Bulls team firmly in the Eastern Conference playoff race. Some fans have complained about Hayes’ lack of scoring, but big guards who can pass, defend and space the floor are valuable. His 3-point shooting is his ticket to having a long and productive career.
[ Pistons believe ‘growth is coming’ for Killian Hayes, but he must stay healthy ]
Grant is in an interesting spot with the Pistons. While his signing has inarguably been a success, it’s probably safe to say he isn’t the top offensive option this team needs. In the grand scheme, that’s fine. He’s capable of popping off for big performances, such as his 34-point outing against the Phoenix Suns on Thursday. He has had to prop up a young team with severe shooting struggles, and that’s an extremely tough job. There’s still room for Grant, who turns 28 in March, to grow. Other than his efficiency being slightly down compared to last year, he has largely been the same player.
I agree Grant is probably best-suited as a secondary option on a playoff team, such as Tobias Harris with the Philadelphia 76ers. That’s not a knock on Grant — he’s a very good player and it’s easy to see him being one of the top weapons on a contending Pistons team. The problem for the Pistons is Grant will become an unrestricted free agent in 2023, and they’re a long way away from contending. It goes without saying they have to get the 2022 pick right. There isn’t a player on the roster with an All-Star appearance.
If Detroit isn’t able to make a Cleveland Cavaliers-esque leap next season, they’ll have some decisions to make. Grant wanted to bet on himself by signing with the Pistons, but his skills make him a strong fit with any good team. It’s possible he’ll want to stay. It’s also possible the Pistons’ realistic timeline to contend is longer than the length of Grant’s next contract. His next deal will likely be more expensive than the $20 million he’s currently making, and all three players projected to go at the top of next year’s draft project as power forwards. It’s too early to make any predictions, but it’s a situation to keep in mind.
Contact Omari Sankofa II at osankofa@freepress.com. Follow him on Twitter @omarisankofa. Read more on the Detroit Pistons and sign up for our Pistons newsletter.