It’s a delicate dance in the last couple of weeks in the season. For sure, there are plenty of teams that are trying to win to improve their chances of making the playoffs.
Then, there are others that are playing for the future and trying to improve their draft position.
The Pistons are in the latter class, but sometimes it seems that they are playing hard enough to be in the group with playoff aspirations. They played the Dallas Mavericks down to the final minute before falling on Thursday night.
Playing to the end and falling short is a repeated theme this season, but there are signs that they could turn some of those around into wins next season. With several veterans out, the Pistons had three rookies in the starting lineup and still played the veteran-laden Mavs — who were without Luka Doncic — close.
The Pistons (19-44) got some good fortune in another way, though.
With one of the worst records in the league, they could be in position to have the best odds to get the No. 1 pick in the draft. In the draft lottery, the bottom three teams get the best odds (14% each), and the Pistons’ loss, coupled with the Minnesota Timberwolves’ victory over the Golden State Warriors, pushed the Pistons to the second-worst record, ahead of the Orlando Magic by a few percentage points.
The Houston Rockets (16-47) look to be in a solid position to have the worst record, but the Pistons could have some company at the bottom. The Oklahoma City Thunder (21-42) and Cleveland Cavaliers (21-41) also are within reach of falling into one of those bottom-three spots.
Each team has between eight and 10 games remaining, so there will be some jockeying down the final two-plus weeks of the season. The Pistons’ strength of schedule is near the middle of the pack, but they have the talent to stay in games and make them competitive.
Tank or swim?
That’s a delicate dance for the fans who want the Pistons to lose all 10 games and guarantee themselves the best shot at the No. 1 pick. In their remaining nine games, the Pistons have home games against the Magic and Timberwolves, so that will play a part.
The Timberwolves are in an interesting spot as well. Their pick is protected if it lands in the top three, but Minnesota is having a surge at a curious time of the season. Minnesota is eliminated from playoff contention already, but they’ve won four straight games, including two over the Utah Jazz, the top seed in the West.
What’s worse is that if the Timberwolves’ pick falls out of the top three, it conveys to the Warriors, so having the fourth-worst record doesn’t help things. Of course, the lottery could benefit the Timberwolves and put them back in the top three — or out of it if they finish in the top three — but there’s no use in tempting fate.
The Timberwolves are within breathing distance of the Thunder and Cavs, and if they win a couple more games, it’ll be interesting to see how the final games play out, with them obviously wanting to hold on to that pick in the top three.
Playing the lottery
What’s also important about staying near the top is the possibility of other teams leapfrogging and pushing others down. The three teams with the worst records have 52.1% odds of staying in the top four. It starts to sink quickly after that, with the fourth-worsts at 48.1% and fifth-worst 42.1%.
Generally, there are teams that jump up higher than their final regular-season record, and the Pistons never have moved up in the lottery with their own pick (the Darko Milicic pick at No. 2 was the Vancouver Grizzlies’ pick).
The best place to be is in the top three, of course, to get a shot at one of the top prospects. Most experts have the top five picks being the elite prospects and then the level drops quickly after that.
For the Pistons, that could mean the difference between top picks like Cade Cunningham or Evan Mobley and consolation prizes like Moses Moody or Scottie Barnes.
Pistons at Hornets
►Tip-off: 7 p.m. Saturday, Spectrum Center, Charlotte, N.C.
►TV/radio: BSD/97.1
►Outlook: The Hornets (30-32) are in the thick of the playoff race, though they’ve lost eight of their last 11 games. They have a favorable remaining schedule, including two of the next three against the Pistons (19-44).
rod.beard@detroitnews.com
Twitter: @detnewsRodBeard