The buzz is still out there. Can you feel it?
Sure, you can. The No. 1 pick in the NBA draft doesn’t come around often. In fact, for the Detroit Pistons, it hasn’t come around in 50 years.
In exactly three weeks, Troy Weaver, the team’s general manager, will draft a player expected to turbo-boost the Pistons’ rebuild. Fair or not, these are the expectations when a team has the top pick. Though history tells a different story.
Cade Cunningham may well turn out to be a superstar and the headliner of this draft class when we look back in five or 10 years. So, too, might Jalen Green or Evan Mobley or Jalen Suggs or even Scottie Barnes, who doesn’t shoot well but, at 6 feet 8, showed uncanny floor vision, limitless defensive versatility, point guard handles, and a sublime understanding of the game as a freshman at Florida State.
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If he finds a jumper, and then finds a way to get buckets off the dribble, he could be the one everyone looks back on and thinks: How did everyone miss?
This isn’t to argue that Weaver should take Barnes with the No. 1 pick. He should not. College players that struggle to shoot generally struggle to shoot in the pros.
True, some players find a stroke at the next level. But taking that gamble in this year’s class is far beyond what even Weaver should be willing to risk.
Yet Barnes’ potential illustrates how difficult it is finding the best player in the draft. Again, Cunningham may be that player. The Pistons can take him and almost no one would quibble.
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Cunningham can create his own shot, create for others, shoot and wants the ball at the end of games. Put all that into a 6-8 package and, well, call it in to the commissioner and head to the Summer League in Vegas.
Just know that Cunningham isn’t the slam-dunk (forgive me) consensus that, say, LeBron James (2003) and Dwight Howard (2004) were. Both of those players will make the Basketball Hall of Fame. Both have won a title.
And both are the only No. 1 picks who were indisputably the “best player” from their draft in the last 20 years. Yes, that’s right: Twenty drafts, two inarguable selections at the top.
Oh, there are others that can make a strong case, like Yao Ming, for example, the No. 1 pick from the 2002 draft.
Ming played for the Houston Rockets. He’s in the Hall of Fame. His touch and height (7-6) made him a force for several good playoff teams.
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But was his peak as dominant as Amar’e Stoudemire’s?
I’d say no.
Stoudemire was a revelation in Phoenix. His mid-2000s run with Steve Nash produced some of the most electric hoops of that era. Only his multiple knee injuries make his Hall of Fame case questionable. Even then, here’s betting he gets in.
So, let’s be generous and say Ming vs. Stoudemire is a toss-up, a category I’ll use for three other No. 1 picks the last 20 years: Derrick Rose (2008), Anthony Davis (2012) and Zion Williamson (2019).
The first two can make a more-than-solid case that they are the best player in their respective classes. Though Russell Westbrook (2008) and Damian Lillard (2012) would have something to say.
Among the four, Davis, when healthy, is the best all-around player by a hair. But Lillard and Westbrook and Rose have all carried teams in a way Davis has not.
As for Williamson?
Are you sure you wouldn’t rather have Ja Morant, who was taken by Memphis in 2019 at No. 2?
Maybe you wouldn’t. And that’s fine. It’s early. Still, it’s a fair question, which means Morant, and not Williamson, may end up being the best player.
So, at best, we are talking about six players among the past 20 drafts who were selected No. 1 and can still make an argument for being the best player of their class.
It’s too soon to say who will emerge as the best from last year’s class. It certainly could be the No. 1 pick, Anthony Edwards. It’s just as likely to be the No. 3 pick, LaMelo Ball (who won Rookie of the Year) or possibly even the No. 2 pick, James Wiseman.
And while the No. 1 pick from the 2018 class, Deandre Ayton, is currently playing in the Finals for the Phoenix Suns — and looks betterby the game — his ceiling is lower than that of Luka Doncic and Trae Young, who were taken with the third and fifth picks of that class.
That still only puts us at seven No. 1 picks of the last 20 can — or could eventually — claim they are the best in their class.
But let’s get back to the 2018 class for a moment, because it’s similar to this year’s in that there are a handful of potentially franchise-changing players at the top. And, in the end, Weaver just needs to draft one of them.
The 2018 class is also a cautionary tale, for as good as Ayton looks, the Suns still passed on Doncic and Young. And that happens a lot more than you think.
Among the other 13 draft classes of the last 20 seasons, here are several No. 1 picks along with the player — or players — from their class who are now considered the best:
2001: Kwame Brown (Pau Gasol or Tony Parker); 2005: Andrew Bogut (Chris Paul or Deron Williams); 2006: Andrea Bargnani (Brandon Roy — for his pre-injury peak or LaMarcus Aldridge or Kyle Lowry); 2007: Greg Oden (Kevin Durant … that still hurts); 2009: Blake Griffin (James Harden or Steph Curry); 2011: Kyrie Irving (Kawhi Leonard); 2013: Anthony Bennett (Giannis Antetokounmpo); 2014: Andrew Wiggins, (Joel Embiid or Nikola Jokic); and, finally, Markelle Fultz (Jayson Tatum and … Donovan Mitchell) in 2017.
Here’s betting that whomever Weaver takes, it won’t be the equivalent of Wiggins over Embiid. And that if it’s Cunningham, he may well have taken a future star.
Just remember that in time, the superstar — or superstars — in this class may be taken a pick or few later. History suggests as much.
Contact Shawn Windsor: 313-222-6487 or swindsor@freepress.com. Follow him on Twitter @shawnwindsor.