If there’s a word that sums up the Detroit Pistons‘ approach to team-building so far, it’s this — opportunity.
General manager Troy Weaver is an upside-gambler. Luke Kennard, Bruce Brown and Christian Wood were flipped for Saddiq Bey and Isaiah Stewart during the 2020 NBA draft. Derrick Rose’s expiring contract became Dennis Smith Jr. and a second-round pick, and Svi Mykhailiuk and a future second-rounder were traded for Hamidou Diallo ahead of last year’s trade deadline. Jerami Grant, Josh Jackson and other free agents have been given chances to expand their game in Detroit.
Thursday’s trade, which saw the Pistons move on from Trey Lyles, Josh Jackson and two second-round picks in a four-team deal that brought back Sacramento Kings big man Marvin Bagley III, is an upside play. Bagley, who went second overall in 2018, didn’t live up to expectations with the Kings and had drifted in and out of their rotation this season.
But Bagley is joining a Pistons team in need of a big man. If things shake the right way, he could establish himself as a key part of Detroit’s future. He’ll enter restricted free agency this summer if the Pistons decide to pick up his qualifying offer, which would put them in the driver’s seat to sign him to a long-term deal.
It’s too early to say if Bagley is a good fit for what the Pistons (12-42) are hoping to build. But it’s a potentially win-win situation for both sides. It’s the lone move Detroit made ahead of the deadline, as they opted to hold onto Grant.
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Bagley brings size, athleticism to Pistons
After a standout freshman season at Duke, Bagley was universally considered to be one of the top prospects in a stacked draft. But four years later, it’s clear Bagley isn’t quite on the same tier as his draft classmates. DeAndre Ayton, Luka Doncic, Jaren Jackson Jr. and Trae Young were all drafted within the top five. Doncic has two First-Team All-NBA selections, Young is a two-time All-Star and Jackson and Ayton have established themselves as two of the league’s best young big men.
Bagley, who is averaging 9.3 points and 7.2 rebounds in 21.9 minutes per game this season, is trending downward. He had fallen out of favor with a Kings front office that didn’t draft him, and a coaching staff with more consistent options at power forward and center. Bagley’s points, rebounds and minutes averages this season are all career-lows, and he’s also shooting a career-low 46.3% from the floor.
He fell victim to a crowded Kings frontcourt that includes Richaun Holmes, Harrison Barnes and Chimezie Metu, but also to his own inability to expand his game. Bagley’s size (6 feet 11, 235 pounds) and athleticism helps him as an interior scorer, but he’s an inconsistent-at-best defender and a career 29.9% 3-point shooter. The Kings often stuck him in the corner on offense, as he took a career-high 15% of his shots on corner 3s, according to Cleaning The Glass, making an abysmal 24% (fourth percentile). He wasn’t able to play to his strengths, negatively impacting his efficiency.
The Pistons, firmly entrenched in a rebuild, can afford to give Bagley a long leash. He’s a strong rebounder and is the best athlete among Detroit’s bigs. With a clean slate, the Pistons will see if he can still tap into the strengths that once made him a potential star.
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Low-cost, high-upside play
The deal has a chance to be a pure win from Detroit’s standpoint. Josh Jackson will be an unrestricted free agency this summer, and Trey Lyles — who exceeded expectations as a small-ball center — had a team option for next season. The Pistons also gave up two future second-round picks — the less favorable of Cleveland or Golden State’s pick in 2023, and Sacramento’s pick in 2024.
Besides the picks, the Pistons can lose cap space. Bagley’s qualifying offer is worth $14.8 million, but that will likely drop to $7.3 million if he fails to reach either 41 games started or 2,000 minutes played this season. He started 17 games for the Kings, and is currently at 656 minutes played. He definitely won’t meet the latter threshold, and is highly unlikely to meet the former with 26 games left in the season, barring any injuries to the roster.
Before the trade, the Pistons were expected to have around $31 million in cap space this offseason. Bagley’s cap hold could eat into that. But it’s a worthwhile gamble considering it’s a relatively week free agency class. With another potential top-five pick in tow and substantial money to spend, the franchise is in position to make more significant moves this summer.
Contact Omari Sankofa II at osankofa@freepress.com. Follow him on Twitter @omarisankofa. Read more on the Detroit Pistons and sign up for our Pistons newsletter.