Detroit Pistons mailbag: Is Phoenix Suns big man Deandre Ayton a possibility?

Detroit Free Press

We’re more than a week removed from the NBA draft combine, and less than a month away from June 23’s draft. This is shaping up to be a busy offseason for the Detroit Pistons, who have the fifth overall pick, significant cap space and a desire to make a leap next season.

With that in mind, let’s get right to the mailbag questions, which cover the looming threat of a Jerami Grant trade, free-agent targets, and of course, who the Pistons could get when the No. 5 pick comes up at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn, New York, next month.

Yes.

Not much has changed since April, when Troy Weaver acknowledged the Pistons are still open to moving Grant if the right deal comes along. Grant is eligible for a four-year extension worth up to $112 million. He’s been productive on his current contract, which he signed in 2020 for $60 million over three years. But his new deal could pay him an average of $28 million per year. It’s a healthy pay raise, and the rebuilding Pistons have incentive to move Grant for assets instead of committing additional money to him.

Grant battled injuries last season, but he finished strong and averaged 18.6 points while shooting 44.2% overall and 38.6% from 3-point range in February and March after returning from a torn UCL in his right thumb. He developed chemistry with Cade Cunningham as the Pistons played their best basketball of the season. Detroit won’t give up Grant for cheap, given that the forward is still only 28 and in his prime. The best time to move him could be now, but that doesn’t guarantee he will be moved.

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I don’t think who the Pistons select with the fifth pick will significantly impact their decision-making in free agency. For one, they’re unlikely to make a big free agency splash. It’s a weak market, and while they’re high on Dallas Mavericks guard Jalen Brunson, Dallas can offer him a better situation and more money over more years. Detroit also isn’t the only team with cap space interested in Brunson. For two, it isn’t a guarantee that the No. 5 pick will be NBA-ready from Day 1. The Pistons will select the best player available, and then they’ll sort out their free agency priorities.

As for Deandre Ayton, I believe the Pistons are interested. The Phoenix Suns declined to offer Ayton, the No. 1 overall pick in 2018, a max extension last offseason. Ayton is now a restricted free agent, and after the Suns’ upset loss to the Mavericks in the second round, Ayton is rumored to be at odds with Suns head coach Monty Williams. The Suns can still match any offer made to Ayton, but there’s a chance Ayton is on a new team next season.

The Pistons could have enough space to offer a max contract this offseason. They also have Grant, who could be used to facilitate a sign-and-trade for Ayton. But the Pistons will have competition for Ayton’s services. Because Ayton is a restricted free agent, a max offer wouldn’t be enough if Phoenix decides to keep him. But it’s a situation worth monitoring.

Dyson Daniels, the supersized Australian point guard who played for the G League Ignite last season, is seeing his draft stock rise after a strong combine showing. Daniels averaged 11.3 points, 5.9 rebounds, 4.4 assists and 1.9 steals last season. He measured nearly 6 feet 8 in shoes, with a 6-10 wingspan, and was among the fastest players at the combine. Daniels is one of the best passers in the draft and a strong and versatile defender. His biggest knock is his outside shooting, as he only knocked down 25.5% of his 3-point attempts with the Ignite.

Barring a significant change in the draft order, Daniels will be available when the Pistons are on the board. Daniels has fans in Detroit’s front office, but I’m not yet convinced he has a realistic chance to be drafted over Purdue’s Jaden Ivey, Iowa’s Keegan Murray, Kentucky’s Shaedon Sharpe or Arizona’s Bennedict Mathurin. But there’s still a month left before the draft, and things are fluid until the pick is in.

I think it makes sense for the Pistons to prioritize upside with their pick. They need a star (or two) next to Cunningham, and they have better odds of finding one in the draft than through free agency. Ivey and Sharpe are elite athletes and have enough talent to suggest they can become go-to offensive options. It’s not surprising that fans have gravitated to them, rather than two safer options in Murray and Mathurin.

However, I don’t think the Pistons need to swing for the fences. Getting an above-average player is never a bad outcome. Swinging for the fences is how you end up with busts, or expensive starters who don’t live up to expectations. Fans remember Donovan Mitchell over Luke Kennard, but rarely consider that Stanley Johnson was considered a higher-upside pick than Devin Booker. The Kentucky guard was pegged as a complementary piece at the time but has since emerged as one of the NBA’s best shooting guards. Hindsight is 20/20, but there’s a realistic chance that Murray and Mathurin will enjoy better NBA careers than several players picked in front of them.

I don’t think this draft should be viewed as Detroit’s primary chance at acquiring another star next to Cade. The Pistons will likely have another lottery pick in 2023, and they can always trade for the piece they need. The Milwaukee Bucks — a small-market Midwest team mired in a rebuild not long ago — hit it big on Giannis Antetokoumnpo in the draft, but Kris Middleton and Jrue Holiday were acquired in trades. Look at most of the NBA’s contending teams. Eliminate the big-market teams that attract stars in free agency, and you’ll find most of them are contending without significant lottery luck. Star power wins championships, but so does talent development and depth.

The Mavericks are hardly a cautionary tale for how the Pistons could end up if they don’t draft another star. Luka Doncic is 23 and comfortably a top-10 NBA player — if not in the top five — and he’s surrounded with above-average role players who can be traded for the second star the Mavericks need. Dallas just defeated a 64-win Suns team in the second round. If the Pistons are in Dallas’ position by the time Cunningham is 23, it will be a massive success for their front office.

It’s impossible to say how it affects their timeline now, but successful rebuilds are led by smart front offices. Lottery luck is a factor, but not the deciding factor. Antetokounmpo was the 15th pick of the 2013 draft. A year later, the Bucks whiffed by selecting Jabari Parker No. 2 overall. But Milwaukee won a championship in 2021 thanks to savvy trades, judicious spending in free agency and patient player development. Meanwhile, the Minnesota Timberwolves have had five top-five picks — and two No. 1s — since 2010 and have nothing to show for it. In that span, they’ve made the playoffs twice and haven’t gotten out of the first round since 2004.

The Pistons may not quite be a playoff team next season, but they’re not interested in winning fewer than 25 games again either. It’ll be Year 2 for Cunningham, and Year 3 for Detroit’s trio of 2020 first-round picks. They will compete to win. It’s hard to build a winning culture while losing, and I think the culture will take priority over whoever the Pistons could draft next year. They have a potential superstar, and they have several good role players — some of whom are still young enough to develop into more. Tanking doesn’t guarantee a top-three pick, even with the worst record. I don’t think there’s much upside to tanking with a young, talented roster ready to win.

Bad decision-making is the reason why the Pistons haven’t won a playoff game since 2008. Good decision-making — not lottery luck — will be the reason why they snap that streak.

Contact Omari Sankofa II at osankofa@freepress.com. Follow him on Twitter @omarisankofa. Read more on the Detroit Pistons and sign up for our Pistons newsletter.

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