On Tuesday, the Detroit Pistons will finally learn their position in the NBA draft. The lottery will take place in Chicago at 7 p.m.
Detroit is guaranteed a top-five pick, but they — and the other 13 teams — will cross their fingers with the hope of landing the first overall pick.
French phenom Victor Wembanyama is the NBA’s most-anticipated prospect in a generation. The Pistons are coming off a 17-65 overall season, and are tied with the San Antonio Spurs and Houston Rockets with a 14% chance at winning the lottery. But with a 47.9% chance of falling to fifth, Pistons fans should brace themselves for a disappointing result.
Even so, this is a talented draft beyond Wembanyama. Our second and last big board ahead of the lottery breaks down the best options for the Pistons at each possible lottery outcome.
More: Detroit Pistons next head coach matters. Not as much as drafting and trading and signing.
1. Victor Wembanyama, 7 feet 5, Metropolitans 92
Stats: 21.3 points, 9.9 rebounds, 2.2 assists, 3.2 blocks, 46.5% overall, 30.4% from 3 (5.3 attempts)
What hasn’t been said about Wembanyama by now? He’s the best prospect since LeBron James, moves like a guard in spite of his height, blocks everything and has an unblockable jumper. Staying put at No. 1 would be like winning 10 lotteries for the Pistons. Wembanyama has a chance to be one of the most dominant defensive players in NBA history, while simultaneously being a problem for opposing defenses with his ball-handling and improving outside shooting.
Fit: The only fit question with Wemby is figuring out how to best protect him on defense. He’s massive, but whatever team drafts him will likely want to pair him with a more-physical big to save his slender frame from taking unnecessary beating early on. Isaiah Stewart or Jalen Duren would fit the bill for Detroit.
2. Scoot Henderson, 6-2, PG, G League Ignite
Stats: 16.5 points, 6.5 assists, 5.4 rebounds, 1.1 steals, 42.9% overall, 27.5% from 3 (2.7 attempts)
In many drafts, Henderson would be considered a potential No. 1 pick. His combination of athleticism, floor-vision and ball-handling ability is reminiscent of some of the great point guards of the last 15 years — Derrick Rose, Russell Westbrook, Ja Morant. From Day 1, he should be a downhill, highlight-producing force who also keeps his teammates involved.
Fit: Henderson would immediately upgrade the Pistons’ talent floor, but his skillset would greatly overlap with their previous two top-five picks — Jaden Ivey and Cade Cunningham — and cover none of their weaknesses as a backcourt. Starting all three together would neutralize any size advantages, as Ivey and Cunningham are both bigger. Henderson is also a poor outside shooter, and likely won’t provide much spacing early in his career.
After a 17-win season, the Pistons need to draft for upside. That’s why Henderson is slightly higher than Brandon Miller, who is a significantly better fit for Detroit and could conceivably be drafted second overall. If there are significant doubts about all three of their young guards coexisting, they can gain an asset — perhaps an additional pick — by moving down the draft.
3. Brandon Miller, 6-9, F, Alabama
Stats: 18.8 points, 8.2 rebounds, 2.1 assists, 0.9 steals, 0.9 blocks, 43% overall, 38.4% from 3 (7.5 attempts)
Miller has one of the most translatable skill sets in the draft as an outside gunner who can play either forward position. At 6-9, Miller shoots over many defenders. He has effortless mechanics and can knock them down in virtually any scenario, both catch-and-shoot and after movement. He’s also a capable defender and at times, thrived as a secondary playmaker. But he’s a good, not-great athlete, is skinny and has a loose handle. He was an underwhelming scorer inside of the arc as a result. Those are surmountable weaknesses, but still ones that will initially limit him in the NBA.
Fit: Other than Wembanyama, there is no other player in the draft who fits Detroit’s roster better than Miller. The Pistons have a clear need for a big wing who is a difference-maker defensively and spaces the floor. Miller certainly does the latter, and he has the tools to be the former as well. Alongside Cunningham and Ivey, Miller could focus on his strengths without the burden of having to create for himself.
4. Cam Whitmore, 6-7, G/F, Villanova
Stats: 12.5 points, 5.3 rebounds, 1.4 steals, 0.7 assists, 47.8% overall, 34.3% from 3 (4.2 attempts)
Of all of the lottery-projected prospects currently outside of the top three, Whitmore may have the best chance of supplanting one of Miller or Henderson. He’s a phenomenal athlete, compiling a highlight-reel of dunks during his lone season at Villanova. Defenders bounce off of him when he drives to the rim, thanks to his 230-pound frame. While he can improve as a shooter, his 3-point percentage implies there’s a higher ceiling he can reach. He’ll still be 18 on draft night.
P3, a sports science performance facility based in California, recently rated Whitmore as a top-tier athlete due to his ability to move vertically and laterally. A strong performance in the combine this week could propel Whitmore to the second-tier of prospects after Wembanyama. His lack of playmaking in college is a red flag, but he otherwise profiles well as a physical 3-and-D wing.
Fit: Like Miller, Whitmore would slot in very well with the Pistons. He’s best without the ball, and he’d fill a need as a cutter who can knock down open 3’s and defend opposing wings and forwards.
5. Jarace Walker, 6-8, F/C, Houston
Stats: 11.2 points, 6.8 rebounds, 1.8 assists, 1.3 blocks, 1 steal, 46.5% overall, 34.7% from 3 (2.8 attempts)
There may not be a more “Troy Weaver” player in this draft than Walker, who was one of college basketball’s best defenders last season and plays with a fiery demeanor. He’s a prototypical modern power forward who could conceivably play some small-ball center as well, and has the footwork to switch onto smaller players. His passing and developing outside jumper makes him one of the better two-way prospects, though he’ll have to continue improving as a shooter.
Fit: The Pistons have already invested deeply into their frontcourt, but Walker would still be a worthy addition. His frame is similar to Stewart’s, but his passing and shooting would enable him to play alongside any of Detroit’s other bigs. They could make a trade down the road to balance out their rotation.
Listen to “The Pistons Pulse” every Tuesday morning and on demand on freep.com or wherever you listen to podcasts. Catch all of our podcasts and daily voice briefing at freep.com/podcasts.
Contact Omari Sankofa II at osankofa@freepress.com. Follow him on Twitter @omarisankofa.