We don’t need to look at the gambling odds to know who the No. 1 pick will be in the 2023 NBA draft.
No, that was determined many years ago, when scouting experts first saw 7-foot-5 phenom Victor Wembanyama.
But beyond the man now widely known as just “Wemby,” the NBA draft is wide open. And depending on how things fall, there is a wide range of players the Detroit Pistons could end up with.
For weeks, it was rumored that Alabama’s Brandon Miller, the star of the 2022-23 college basketball season, would land at No. 2 with the Charlotte Hornets. ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski said on June 16 on The Ryen Russillo Podcast he has been hearing it will likely be Miller at No. 2 and G League Ignite guard Scoot Henderson at No. 3 to either the Portland Trail Blazers, or a team trading for that pick.
However, if you look at the sportsbooks, that appears to have flipped.
According to DraftKings Sportsbook, Henderson is now the favorite to be the second overall pick, with odds set at -220 for Henderson and +150 for Miller. (Basic gambling lesson; if you were to bet $100 on Henderson, you would win $45.45, plus your $100 back. If you bet $100 on Miller to go No. 2, you’d win $150, plus your $100 back.)
For the No. 3 pick, the odds are exactly inversed on DraftKings, with Miller the favorite to go third overall at -220 and Henderson at +150. The odds on FanDuel Sportsbook reflect a similar projected outcome, albeit with slightly different odds.
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After that is when experts say there is a real drop off in the level of prospects, which is what made Detroit’s drop from No. 1 to No. 5 that much more painful.
Because of that dropoff, the national narrative has been that after No. 3, anything can happen. But the sportsbooks seem to believe there is a candidate solidifying themselves at No. 4.
DraftKings currently has Amen Thompson, the guard out of the Overtime Elite academy, where Pistons’ coaching candidate Kevin Ollie was for the past several years, at -190 to go fourth overall, with FanDuel having him at -170. (Ollie, by the way, is back in the NBA, as an assistant with Brooklyn, which doesn’t pick until No. 21.) Amen and his twin brother Ausar have both been frequently marked as potential Pistons picks. Which brother is better? Kevin O’Connor of The Ringer has Amen projected at No. 4 in his mock draft with Ausar to the Pistons at No. 5, but he said he views Ausar as the better prospect. They’re literally twins, after all.
With that in mind, you may be thinking Ausar is the sportsbook favorite to end up with the Pistons, but right now that’s not the case. At No. 5 is where the real uncertainty begins.
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FanDuel has Houston’s Jarace Walker as the slight favorite to go No. 5 at +175, with Villanova’s Cam Whitmore right behind at +195. Meanwhile, DraftKings basically has those odds flipped, with Whitmore the favorite to go No. 5 at +170 and Walker trailing at +190.
The Thompson twins are seen as slightly less plausible for the Pistons: Ausar is at +380 on FanDuel and +330 on DraftKings, while Amen is further back at +470 on FanDuel and +450 on DraftKings.
That essentially tells us is the sportsbooks, like most people, really don’t know. But they think it will likely be either Whitmore or Walker.
Whitmore projects as a fiery offensive player with good size and shooting, but there have been questions about his ability to facilitate. He averaged 0.7 assists per game last year with 1.6 turnovers. But with Cade Cunningham and Jaden Ivey already on the roster, his playmaking might not be as much of a concern.
Walker would fit more into Pistons’ general manager Troy Weaver’s identity thus far. Weaver likes big, defense-first players, and Walker definitely fits that mold. At 6 feet 8 and 240 pounds, Walker has the ability to switch out onto smaller players while matching up with bigger players. He averaged 11.2 points and 6.8 rebounds, plus 1.3 blocks and one steal.
Truly, there’s a strong case for both guys. Free Press Pistons beat writer Omari Sankofa has the Pistons landing Whitmore in his latest mock draft.
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On Tuesday, Weaver said he favors taking a “big swing” in the NBA draft, but realistically that could be many of the players reportedly on the Pistons’ draft board, which also include UCF’s Taylor Hendricks and Arkansas’ Anthony Black. The sportsbooks view both of those players as long shots. DraftKings has both Hendricks and Black at +2000, while FanDuel has Hendricks at +1500 and Black at +2600 to go No. 5 overall.
After the Pistons’ scheduled selection at No. 5, the favorites are as follows: Ausar Thompson (+185 for No. 6), Hendricks (+180 for No. 7), Black (+160 for No. 8), Hendricks again (+350 for No. 9), and Duke’s Dereck Lively II (+180 for No. 10).
Another interesting name to monitor, although likely not to the Pistons, is former Michigan guard Kobe Bufkin, who is reportedly a fast riser. Bufkin is +3000 to go No. 7 but jumps way up to +800 for No. 8, a selection currently held by the Washington Wizards.